HOW THE GOP WILL WIN THE SENATE

By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN

Published on DickMorris.com on February 8, 2010

If the Republican Party wins every senate seat in which it now holds a lead, according to Rasmussen’s polls, it will capture eight Democratic seats while holding all of its own.  The two remaining pickups, to assure control, could be in Indiana where former Senator Dan Coats may run against Senator Evan Bayh and in California.  Even if Coats does not run, former Congressman John Hostettler is only behind Bayh by 44-41.  And, in California, former Hewlitt Packhard CEO Carly Fiorina is also only three points behind Senator Barbara Boxer.

(This assumes that former Wisconsin governor Tommy Thompson takes on Senator Russ Feingold).

Here’s the data:

In these eight races, the Republican is ahead:

State   Contest Latest Polling              Date

Delaware   Castle v Coones Castle +29      Jan

ND   Hoeven v unknown         Hoeven +20 (v Dorgan)       Dec

Ark   Lincoln v 4 opps Repub (Baker) +19      Feb

Nev   Reid v 3 opps         Repub (Tarkanian) +8         Feb

Colorado   Norton v Bennet Norton +14      Feb

Penn   Toomey v Specter         Toomey +9      Jan

Illinois   Kirk v Giannoulias          Kirk +6      Feb

Wisconsin   Thompson v Feingold           Thompson +3      Jan

And, in these two states, the results are close:

State   Contest Latest Polling              Date

California   Boxer v 3 opps Boxer (v Fiorina) +3      Jan

Indiana           Bayh v Hostettler         Bayh +3      Jan

If Republicans take all ten seats, they take control in the Senate.

In addition strong challenges may be shaping up in New York against Kirsten Gillibrand and in Washington State against Patty Murray.

Gillibrand, appointed to fill Hillary’s seat, is very vulnerable, both in a primary against former Tennessee Democratic Congressman Harold Ford and in a general election.  If a strong candidate emerges, she and/or Ford could be defeated.

And in Washington State, innovative businessman (and millionaire) Paul Akers is likely to run against Patty Murray.  The Washington State senator only won with 55% of the vote last time, a poor performance for a three term incumbent.  Akers’ company takes new technologies, buys them, and then uses them to create jobs.  He should give Murray a tough race which he could end up winning.

But the message of Massachusetts is that any Republican can beat any Democrat anywhere.  So don’t count out former Congressman Rob Simmons’ race against Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal or any possible candidate against Oregon’s Ron Wyden and New York’s Chuck Schumer.

The Republicans will win the Senate (and the House) and might win it with a few seats to spare!