One of our members called this morning wanting the list of Senators in the ‘amnesty bubble’ — those who are most susceptible to changing their action on the potential amnesty vote in early 2010.

Those of us who made it to the office in the middle of the DC blizzard shutdown today came up with lists of one-third of the U.S. Senators where your pressure could be the most influential and crucial.

See the names of the 38 targeted Senators here.

As yet, no bill has been introduced in the Senate, but here are links about the amnesty bill that was introduced in the U.S. House last week:
Joe Jenkins’ blog.
Section-by-Section analysis of the bill.

PRO-AMNESTY SENATORS FELL 14 VOTES SHORT IN 2007

Let’s start with the fact that the U.S. Senate on June 28, 2007 voted 46-53 on a cloture motion to end the filibuster on the Bush/Kennedy amnesty.

That means massive constituency pressure achieved a majority vote (53) for our side during a time of low unemployment (but of stagnant wages for most working-class Americans).

It also means that the pro-amnesty Senators were 14 votes short of the 60 needed to stop the filibuster and allow a vote to pass the amnesty.

Those of us fighting to protect the economic interests of 15 million jobless Americans must concentrate on keeping the pro-amnesty forces from adding 14 more votes.

‘BUBBLE SENATORS’ WHO COULD CLOSE
THE 14-VOTE GAP AND PASS AN AMNESTY

• 15 Democrats defied their Party leadership in 2007 and voted AGAINST the amnesty.

  How many of them will again courageously stand for American workers and how many will switch sides in favor of illegal foreign workers and the outlaw businesses that hire them? If all 15 follow their Party leaders and turn against us (and nothing else changes), the amnesty would pass.

  See the list of 15 here.

• 7 Democrats since the 2007 vote have replaced 7 Republicans who voted AGAINST the amnesty.

  Will they come to see that the voters of their state expect their Senators — regardless of Party affiliation — to continue to oppose amnesty ? Or will they feel that their higher loyalty is to the Democratic Party leaders and their desire for millions more legal workers to compete against unemployed Americans?

  See the list of 7 here.

• 1 Democrat who was up for re-election in 2007 didn’t vote because of illness.

  His state is solidly against the amnesty, but he usually goes with the Party leadership and doesn’t face re-election for five more years.

  See him here.

A CHANCE TO PICK UP VOTES
AGAINST AMNESTY FROM THESE ‘BUBBLE SENATORS’

• 7 Republicans who followed Pres. Bush and voted FOR the amnesty in 2007 remain in office.

  Now that there are no Party leaders strong-arming FOR the amnesty, will some of these 7 Republicans rejoin the rest of their Party and oppose it?

  See the list of 7 here.

• 4 new Republican Senators have replaced Republican Senators who voted FOR the amnesty in 2007.

  What is the chance of moving those votes over into the AGAINST column?

  See the list of 4 here.

• 2 of the Democrats who voted FOR the amnesty in 2007 have been replaced by new Democrats who are facing contested elections next fall.

  Can they come to feel that opposing an amnesty would be a better re-election strategy?

• 2 other Democrats who voted FOR the amnesty in 2007 are up for re-election next fall and behind in the polls.

  Can the voters in their states persuade them that approving an amnesty would be bad for their chances of staying in the Senate?

NET ADVANTAGE? THE PEOPLE HOLD THE POWER

In the big struggle over whether the pro-amnesty forces can gain a net of 14 votes, the victory is the people’s to lose.

But if the people sit back and expect that these 38 Senators will primarily just do the right thing, an amnesty will pass. Tens of millions of dollars of contributions to the Senators and to pro-amnesty lobbyists ensure that the amnesty will pass without massive public opposition.

With a concerted and steady public engagement with these 38 Senators, I don’t see how we can fail. Then, the math works in our favor.

Be sure to read my blog today for all the names and further analysis on all of them.

For those of you who are looking for a way to start fighting now (even before the holidays are over), I wanted to get to you the most important names right away.

Over the next couple of weeks we will begin to offer you specific faxes, phone notes and event notes to help you magnify constituent pressure on these Senators.

If you are ready to start calling their DC offices now, here’s the number:

202-224-3121

THANKS,