Putin’s Anointed Heir Shows Hints of Less Icy Style
February 28, 2008
The division has long been a fixture of Russian political life. Its battalions have marched for decades in formation in Red Square.
Eight years ago, as President Vladimir V. Putin introduced himself to the world, its platoons fought for the capital of Chechnya, helping to forge Mr. Putin’s persona as a leader of icy resolve.
Now, Mr. Medvedev, the presidential successor personally selected by Mr. Putin, is creating his own public identity according to a choreographed script. And here, in a mix of Soviet and Russian symbols, the man rising to Kremlin power avoided the stern themes that have often accompanied Mr. Putin’s appearances.
He wanted to talk about living conditions, for soldiers and civilians alike. “Let’s talk about the problems that exist,” he said to the soldiers beside him before a bank of television cameras. “Let’s have a normal conversation. Please.”
The outcome of the monthlong presidential campaign, which culminates Sunday, when voters will cast ballots, is already known. Barring something extraordinary and unforeseen, Mr. Medvedev, 42, an unprepossessing bureaucrat who has never held an elected office, will win by a landslide and become the Kremlin’s new leader.
Mr. Medvedev, who lacks the imposing K.G.B. résumé of his sponsor, has said he will appoint Mr. Putin as his prime minister.
As he has become the country’s second most-watched man, he has implicitly presented himself as both a Putin loyalist and a president-in-waiting who will wield power in a manner more gentle than the world has seen under Mr. Putin’s brand of rule.
Whether this is a pose is an open question. Mr. Medvedev, in commentary outside of official Russian circles, has been cast as a puppet, a president who will labor according to Mr. Putin’s command.
But he has made unanticipated moves. In a speech on Feb. 15, he said liberty was necessary for the state to have legitimacy among its citizens. And he has laid out domestic policy goals in what seems like a communiqué to Russia’s expanding consumer class.
Mr. Medvedev has also struck a campy pose — hamming it up with Deep Purple, the British heavy metal band whose music was popular in Soviet times — that suggested a dormitory-life playfulness that is decidedly not Putinesque.
His words and behavior have raised unexpected but pervasive questions. Does Mr. Medvedev mean what he seems to say? Can he ease the grip on Russian political life that has been a central characteristic of Mr. Putin’s rule?
And if he does, will he clash with Mr. Putin, his principal source of power?
Analysts are split. Michael A. McFaul, director of the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law at Stanford University, said Mr. Medvedev had a more Western orientation than many Kremlin insiders. But he suggested that his official embrace of freedom was more packaging than substance. “That’s public relations,” he said. “That’s not strategic shift.”
Sergei Markov, a political scientist who is close to the Kremlin and a member of Parliament, said Mr. Medvedev, a lawyer with roots in St. Petersburg, had an affinity for the West. He expects that Mr. Medvedev will push for more political freedom, to a point.
“Medvedev will try to encourage political competition within the system without destabilizing the system,” he said. “How he does this, we will see. But I think stability will be the priority.”
He also said the model Mr. Putin had chosen for his transition from Russia’s highest office, and Mr. Medvedev’s flashes of liberal inclinations, could lead to unintended divides in Russia’s circles of power. That, he said, is a reason Mr. Medvedev will push only so far.
“The Russian government has weak institutions,” Mr. Markov said. “A split between two personalities could destabilize the political situation, and because politics plays a main role in the Russian economy, if there is a split it could destabilize the economy, too. So that is a major risk.”
